Mark Steyn worried about demographics and mentions the European crisis on a regular basis. Well today he has an extensive article on the subject on OpinionJournal, actually a reprint from the New Criterion.
The basic observation is that westerners are refusing to reproduce themselves and thus ceding the future world to the developing world, particularly Islam. The U.S. is barely at the replacement rate of 2.1, but virtually every other western country is in a death spiral. The generalized policy within western countries is to compensate with immigration, but therein lies another problem--the immigrants aren't being assimilated.
The irony here is that if the new immigrants were assimilated, they would quickly become part of the problem--demandiing 35 hour work weeks, eschewing children so inconvenient to planning those yearly jaunts to Thailand.
Steyn doesn't just describe a bleak landscape, he explains how it got that way:
We spend a lot of time at The New Criterion attacking the elites, and we're right to do so. The commanding heights of the culture have behaved disgracefully for the last several decades. But if it were just a problem with the elites, it wouldn't be that serious: The mob could rise up and hang 'em from lampposts--a scenario that's not unlikely in certain Continental countries. But the problem now goes way beyond the ruling establishment. The annexation by government of most of the key responsibilities of life--child-raising, taking care of your elderly parents--has profoundly changed the relationship between the citizen and the state. At some point--I would say socialized health care is a good marker--you cross a line, and it's very hard then to persuade a citizenry enjoying that much government largesse to cross back. In National Review recently, I took issue with that line Gerald Ford always uses to ingratiate himself with conservative audiences: "A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything you have." Actually, you run into trouble long before that point: A government big enough to give you everything you want still isn't big enough to get you to give anything back. That's what the French and German political classes are discovering.
This is precisely what makes the problem so intractable--"we" are part of the problem. What fascinates me about this topic is the realization how personal the rise and fall of civilizations really is. Its not merely "their" problem, but one that touches each of us. As I look at my father's generation, my own, and that of my children, I see some remarkable differences. My father lived through WWII and the post-war occupation of Austria as an adolescent. He grew up in a time and culture where industriousness was a virtue higher than all others. His efforts to deliver his family a better standard of living were herculean. When he got married, there was no question of having children or not, it was a given, Marriage meant wife and children--family.
My adolescence was nothing like my father's--no one was dropping bombs on my head and I lived in what Michael Barone has called "soft America"
...from the age of 6 to 18, our kids live mostly in what I call Soft America--the part of our society where there is little competition and accountability. In contrast, most Americans in the 12 years between ages 18 and 30 live mostly in Hard America--the part of American life subject to competition and accountability; the military trains under live fire. Soft America seeks to instill self-esteem. Hard America plays for keeps.
I suppose I am one of those dissolute 18 year-olds that evolved into a competent 30 year-old but there is something else at work here, something far more fundamental.
I got married the day after I turned 23 and was a father at 25. That was unusual where I grew up--most of my friends from highschool married late, if at all, and had few if any children with notable exceptions. The difference was cultural--I came from a large family with strong religious values. It was and still is common for young people in my faith to get married comparatively early and have comparatively large families.
This is very important to understand because ultimately, there is nothing biological telling a man it is time to be a husband and a father. You do it because you're culture expects it of you, considers it a right of passage into adulthood and respectability. In my young mind, being a husband and father made me a man. In the minds of my friends in the secular culture, there simply was no such impetus.
It seems like such a small thing, such a personal decision, but our personal decisions collectively determine the rise and fall of civilizations.
Memes like evolutionary adaptions, can sometimes be beneficial, sometimes destructive and sometimes dormant. We don't usually actively recognize them as such, if we are aware of them at all, yet they determine our futures.
It is for this reason that I have no compunction about calling myself a social conservative. It is not a matter of fear of change, but rather a recognition that seemingly innocuous attitudes and perspectives have far reaching effects not only in our personal lifes, but for society as a whole. Social liberalism in my view is largely a combination of narrow experience and arrogance--what they don't understand they dismiss as irrelevant. Social conservatism doesn't preclude change, it simply refuses to rush in where angels fear to tread.
What Europe--what the entire western world needs, is to re-endow fatherhood with honor, to recognize the worth of a man (or woman) by the sacrifices they make rather than the things they acquire.
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