Hillary's not so prescient pollster Mark Penn writes for The Politico on the latest hot swing demographic--well, maybe not so hot--the "active grannie" vote. Take it with a grain of salt, but interesting nonetheless:
In the last New York Times survey, seniors were effectively tied, favoring McCain by 2 points. Eighteen percent of seniors surveyed in that poll were undecided. In fact, the undecided voters we are seeing across the polls are largely white and senior. They will be the biggest viewers of the conventions and the debates, and the 4 to 5 percent of senior undecided voters is enough to tip the election one way or the other.Obama will certainly do very well with younger voters, and he has appealed to them with his message of change and new generational appeal. But the growth of the senior vote in the past 48 years will make this a closer election than it appears to be.
Obama making a specific appeal to women, McCain contests:
In recent polls, Obama has had a significant edge among women. A Quinnipiac University poll released July 15 found women supported Obama over Republican John McCain, 55 percent to 36 percent. Among men, McCain had 47 percent and Obama 44 percent.Meanwhile, the RNC draws attention to unsavory FOBarack's, with a takeoff on his youthful appeal via BarackBook, a Facebook spoof.However, Obama hasn't had an advantage among independent women voters, who gave him 45 percent to 42 percent for McCain, well within the margin of error.
Obama also has work to do with some Clinton supporters. A recent poll by The Associated Press and Yahoo News found that just 12 percent of former Clinton supporters say they are excited about Obama.
And Michelle is attempting a toned-down decorum--lunching with the girls.
Posted by Anne Leary on July 29, 2008 11:09 AM
| Permalink
