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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 5, 2008 9:08 AM.

The previous post in this blog was How Much Trouble is Chavez In?.

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« How Much Trouble is Chavez In? | Main | More Cartoon Character Comparisons for Obama »

Its a Tie

Neither Clinton or Obama can outright win the delegate race.


That means he [Obama] would need to win 77% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024 to secure the nomination. That is highly unlikely due to the proportional delegate allocation rules in the Democratic Party.

Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024. (ABC News currently has her at 1449.)

The Democrats worse nightmare is here--a brokered convention that can't declare a winner without disenfranchising large and important voters blocs.

Michigan and Florida are the elephants in the room. They have no delegates and Hillary won both decisively, but without competition since the other candidates kept their pledges while Clinton did not.

Restore their delegates and the Obama camp has good reason to call foul. Abide by their exclusion and Obama's victory is tainted by the alienation of to important general election states.

The super delegates' position is little better. The mere fact of having super delegates decide a race like this only underscores how undemocratic the Democrats really are. Already a laughingstock because of they Byzantine primary and caucus, or primary/caucus (Texas two-step) rules, the prospect of selecting a candidate in a smoke-filled back room is appalling. The loser is going to represent a very angry and disillusioned set of constituencies.

The larger issue is how the misbegotten process makes the party look.

Do you really want these buffoons running the country? They can't even run a nomination process!

It all makes it far more likely that we are going to see both candidates on the ticket, with the remaining efforts a matter of whose on top, and whose on the bottom.

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