A cardinal rule of South American politics is that when things are going badly domestically--declare war on your neighbor.

The Falklands war resulted from an invasion by Argentina whose military dictator, Leopoldo Galtieri, needed something to distract the populace from the more intransigent problems he was unable to deal with.

Alberto Fujimori of Peru, actually engaged in an autogolpe--a coup against his own government. He simply dismissed Congress and assumed dictatorial powers to the Peruvian's overwhelming approval (strange people those Peruvians...)

This may explain why Hugo Chavez seems to be intent on provoking Colombia into outright military conflict by sending 10 tank battalions to the border.

Most of the border goes through the llanos, a tropical plain, that is actually pretty good tank terrain, but the lack of cover also makes the tanks highly vulnerable to strikes by aircraft--Colombia has, as a consequence of its long fight against the Narco-Marxists, a considerable helicopter fleet.

It seems to me that this is an irresistable invitation for Colombia to get rid of an annoyance. They don't have to mount a full-scale invasion, but simply deal Chavez a decisive defeat which would embarrass his government and worsen his domestic situation to the point where a coup becomes inevitable. I would also give FARC no place to hide and the international political cover to finally wipe them out.

The entire episode smacks of desperation.