Chavez clearly has a project in mind as it concerns Colombia. FARC has been largely passive for years until recently when Chavez undertook their cause. He has been actively supporting Colombia terror groups FARC and ELN and has even called on other countries to recognize them as legitimate political entities. An attempt by Chavez to negotiate safe zones for the terrorists within the territorial boundaries of Colombia last year fell apart after FARC and ELN could not provide proof of life for some 700 hostages they had taken (some have remained in capitivity for 10 years...).

This is important because this past weekend's military posturing over Colombia's raid into Ecuador strongly suggest that Chavez has had little choice but to shelter FARC and ELN forces in Venezuela as a result of the breakdown in negotiations in 2007 (after which he cut off all diplomatic contact with Colombia...). He clearly hoped to mitigate that risk by keeping FARC in Colombia--safe and active. Now his leg is in the trap.

Álvaro Uribe, is in his second term as president with immense popularity, having won reelection with over 60% of the vote and enjoying 70%+ popularity through much of his administration. He has been very focused on establishing peace by military victory in Colombia and has succeeded in dismantling a third terror group (AUN). Like Iraq, the formula for Colombia's prosperity is security first, after which they can attract legitimate investment into this rich and beautiful country of 27 million, often referred to as the most geographically diverse in the world. Uribe's policies have created a formidable and highly mobile military force with the help of American special forces. After sidelining AUN, they have been able to focus more intensely on FARC and ELN. It is no doubt Uribe's success that prompted Chavez to stir the pot, for the same reasons Iran fears a prosperous and democratic Iraq on its border.

Uribe is hell-bent on defeating FARC and ELN and he has the means to do it. Chavez has risked the sovereignty of Venezuela to prevent him for doing so. Ecuador is involved only by virtue of its weakness. Its can't keep the rebels out and it can't resist the Colombian's efforts to pursue those rebels in their territory. They have since cut of diplomatic relations as a token of their objection, but my guess is that they simply hope the Colombians can clean out the nests and go back home after which they can all make nice again.

Chavez now has a huge problem. The Colombians are going into Venezuela to get FARC. They don't have a choice. Chavez can allow them to do so, making a lot of noise in the process, but if he does, his project is over and he faces the formidable task of dealing with a prosperous, democratic and America-friendly country right next door to him. Socialism always fares poorly when it has to coexist with free-market economies.

If he resists militarily, he risks an escalation that creates the possibility of a U.S. invasion in support of Colombia and in an effort to preserve Venezuela's oil resources (without which world oil prices could rise to $200.00 a barrel).

Noriega isn't using his cell anymore, so we have a vacancy for another tin-pot dictator.

Developing...