Although the Thompson camp strongly denies it, Politico is reporting that Thompson will bow out if he doesn't do well in Iowa.

This is what I would call a vicious circle. Politico has a story, but if they wait until tomorrow its value diminishes. By posting the story today, the Thompson campaign is forced to deny it because acknowledgment would depress the turnout for the candidate.

I think the story is probably true for no other reason that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Thompson doesn't have the money and isn't getting the support that he needs to continue and its difficult to see where he gets it later in the process.

From my perspective, Thompson's problem is George W. Bush. Bush was elected on the basis of his conservative orthodoxy. Social conservatives were pleased, economic conservatives were pleased, national security conservatives didn't yet exist in significant numbers. There seems to be a tacit consensus among conservatives that Bush had his heart in the right place but that his performance didn't match his good intentions.

In short--Bush embarrassed conservatives.

As a result, we have a crop of top tier candidates that are characterized by exceptional performance in at least one area. McCain and Giuliani are more than orthodox on national security, they are proven leaders. Huckabee really, really loves Jesus. Romney's economic conservativism is marrow-deep and he's super competent, which translated means that he won't embarrass us with goofy military invasions and drowsy response to domestic crisis.

Fred Thompson just resembles George W. Bush too much, and I think his perceived lackadaisical attitude towards campaigning only emphasized the future potential for embarrassment.

“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser said Wednesday. “It was an honorable race, and he turned out to be a good candidate. The moment had just passed.”

True, true.