While the spinners are going to work very hard to characterize Hillary's political opportunism as something "harmless", there is only one question that needs to be answered--would you want to be in Hillary's shoes if the situation in Iraq keeps improving?

"I was for the war, then I was against it." Will she be for the war again next year?

This was a no-brainer for Giuliani. He gets to attack the presumptive nominee of the rival party and produce a tacit contrast with his own consistency on the topic. Nice move. I bet the other candidates wish they would have done it.

Jonah Goldberg explores the "schoolmarmish fog" of Hillary Clinton.

Can a candidate who never gives a straight answer beat someone who is clear and consistent in his positions? Generally I would say no, but ultimately this election will turn less on the personal style of the candidates and more on the party's Iraq war narrative. If things go into the crapper in the next year, Hillary wins. If not, she loses.

I think its that simple.