John McCain just can't seem to catch a break. While some pundit praised his performance during the last debate, Frank Luntz's focus group dialed him down and out. The "strong on terror" position isn't having the impact it might because frankly, virtually the entire cohort of candidates is credibly "strong on terror". Its the old Clinton maxim--match your opponents strengths and emphasize your own differences.

McCain, already lagging in the fund-raising and spending far too much too early, is now facing the nightmare of seeing his fundraisers abandoning him for the Thompson campaign.

My personal view is that McCain is out of runway--the immigration debate has nailed the coffin lid shut. Unless Thompson screws up very badly, McCain simply won't make it through the third quarter.

I am to admit, I seriously underestimated Fred Thompson, and I'm still at a loss to understand what is driving his campaign--I just don't get the attraction. Regardless, his co-opting of the McCain machine makes him a serious contender even coming in this late in the game. Of course, he's not really been tested as a candidate yet, and ultimately I think he'll have a serious problem competing with Romney and Giuliani who are both very quick on their feet. If Fred is "Fred", he's going to say something unfortunate--such as his inadvertent slip on Hannity & Colmes that abortion shouldn't be criminalized. That's a defensible position, but its highly impolitic for a presidential candidate. On the other hand, if he's "handled", he'll lose his best weapon--his spontaneity.

Two thirds of the Bush pioneers and rangers are still uncommitted to candidates. In my view, they are waiting for a sure bet, and its still not clear who will be the clear frontrunner. I know--Rudy is ahead in the polls, and Romney is leading in Iowa, but no one seriously expects that someone with Giuliani's views and record can win the nomination, which of course is why Romney and McCain pretty much ignore him and focus instead on each other. With McCain out, it will be a question of how Thompson and Romney shake out.

Romney still hasn't allayed doubts about his conservative credentials, and its getting to be critical that he does very quickly--before Fred gets in for real.