"We're planning for the largest turnout since the Concorde came in 1974," said Paul Haney, deputy executive director of airports and security for Los Angeles World Airports. "This could be huge, and we're doing everything possible to be ready."
One has to appreciate the irony of the remark. The A380 resembles the Concorde is more than just its public relations impact. Like the Concorde, the A380 was designed as a political statement, and as with that magnificent plane, American aerospace made a hard-headed business decision to take another path. The British and French built supersonic and Boeing built the 747.
History records who won that bet.
The A380 is shaping up as an echo of the past. The flight to LAX and a subsequent landing in New York are an attempt to recapture some of the excitement that a two year delay, 10,000 layoffs and the resignations of a passel of senior executives have mitigated.
In a desperate gamble to keep its commitments for the first passenger planes, Airbus sacrificed the order book for the freight version. Management judged, correctly in my opinion, that the future of the company was at stake and that it had to start flying the pacific rim as soon as possible. Salvation lies in the Chinese market which is expected to need as many as 3,000 aircraft by 2025.
China's State Council has "in principle" approved a plan to design and make large airplanes based on its own technology, the Cabinet said in a statement posted on the government portal Sunday.
That brief announcement could very well be the end of Airbus and the European aerospace industry. Without the Chinese market to pull the A380 out of the ditch, Airbus finds itself basically out of the running as a major manufacturer of transcontinental aircraft and is relegated to competing with Canadair and Embraer of Brazil for the regional aircraft business.
The effect on Boeing will be to effectively trade competitors--Airbus for whatever entity comes out of China.
The decision is not all that surprising--China has the technological wherewithal (thanks in no small part to technology transfers from Airbus) to produce its own passenger aircraft, a burgeoning domestic market to support such a venture, and the political will to undertake the effort.
So my Angelo friends, enjoy today's spectacle for what it is--a sighting of a rare, nearly-extinct species. Speaking of which--Varifrank compares the arrival of the A380 at LAX to a similar PR stunt by the Zeppelin Airship Co.
In 1929, Dr. Eckener was demonstrating the superiority of European technology to the world by crossing the Pacific and landing in a sleepy California coastal town, far from the bright center of the world. The world rightly sat awestruck at his accomplishment. This was a staggering acheivement in any age but in 1929, it was positively heroic.In August 1929, it was all champagne and celebration for the crew of Graf Zeppelin. The future looked very bright indeed for the makers of Airships. Sitting below the Graf Zeppelin on its arrival to Los Angeles, I can’t help but think that the smart set of the day would have been betting their money on the big, big future for the use of Airships.
It just goes to show you what a waste of time it is to try to predict the future. Stand in the shoes of the people living in LA in the summer of 1929, and see how far it gets you.
While the flight of the Graf Zeppelin is still one of the most successful flights of Airships, the future of airships was far less certain. (Interestingly enough, the only other airship not to meet a less than glorious end due to weather or accident, was the U.S.S. Los Angeles.) No one at the time would predict accurately what would happen to Los Angeles and the world in just the next 20 years.
The Stock market crashed in October 1929, marking the beginning of what came to be known as the “great depression”.
The Hindenburg crashed in 1937, marking the end of the Airship for transportation purposes.
Plus ça change…
Posted by Mick Stockinger on March 19, 2007 3:09 AM
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