With the obligatory observation that Hillary would be the first female president and First Lady to be elected to the presidency, the liberal media breathlessly announced Hillary's run for the presidency.

"After six years of George Bush, it is time to renew the promise of America," she said.

"I grew up in a middle-class family in the middle of America, and we believed in that promise," the 59-year-old Chicago native said.

"I still do. I've spent my entire life trying to make good on it, whether it was fighting for women's basic rights or children's basic health care, protecting our social security or protecting our soldiers."

With a statement like that, I'd say she's running--only your basic moonbat believes that the path to the presidency is paved with opposition to George Bush and protecting our poor child soldiers. Moonbats however, vote in primaries, so expect to hear a lot more of this kind of talk.

the only reason to write about this is to muse over her chances of winning the nomination. Can she? Will she?

Obviously she can win it--she's been an excellent Senator by all accounts, she can raise a lot of money and she has to-die-for name recognition. She's also married to Bill.

On the other hand, Hillary has the charisma of Madeline Albright and the fact that everyone knows her name also means that everyone already has an opinion about her. Oh, and she's married to Bill.

The historical reality of politics is that the longer you're in it, the more enemies you make. The fact that Bill Richardson also announced strongly suggests that her rivals know this.

Abraham Lincoln won the Republican nomination against demonstrably better-known rivals largely for that reason--they canceled each other other and left Lincoln the last man standing as the acceptable second choice. Much like the mid-19th century Republicans, modern-day Democrats are caught in a political environment where extremism is a sword wielded to obtain power or just as likely a self-inflicted wound. Hillary's fence-sitting on the Iraq war is precisely the kind of issue that has doomed may strong candidates before her.

Barack Obama is a little too well-known now to be a Lincoln-like darkhorse, but his popularity ironically illustrates the problem. With no record, he becomes a vessel for people's political fantasies. It should be obvious that it can't last. Hillary will obviously be the primary target, but Obama won't be able to hide in the trenches.

History can tell us about possible outcomes without dictating the future, but I take exception to the confident projections of a Clinton victory--it could happen, but the reality is that Hillary is in undiscovered country.