With 15% of the votes, Daniel Ortega, former dictator of Nicaragua, has 40% of the popular vote. If he can keep that margin, he becomes president. If he goes below 35% he goes to a run-off in which he probably loses.

Ortega has literally seen the light, even being rebaptized into the Catholic church, however the financial support of Hugo Chavez suggests that its all window-dressing.

Nicaragua is commonly cited as one of the poorest countries in the hemisphere, but its low crime rate and recent inclusion into the central American free trade agreement has attracted considerable foreign investment. That could all evaporate overnight if Ortega gets elected.

I wouldn't ordinarily be too concerned (Ortega's dictatorship doesn't evoke a lot of fond memories from long-suffering Nicaraguans...), but Jimmy Carter is down there...