I've consistently been unimpressed with allegedly seasoned political pundits making forecasts based on some pretty flimsy foundations.

Almost anywhere I looked the past few days, its was blythely conceded that Foley's district was a lost cause. I thought this was cracked and said so. Now Mickey Kaus highlights some polls that bear me out.

Not So Fast! Are we sure Rep. Foley's Florida seat is lost to the GOPs? One thing pundits seem to agree on is that "there is no question [the Foley scandal] has cost them at least one House seat," in the words of RCP's John McIntyre. That would be Foley's seat. Only 14 to go for the Dems, it would seem. But Majority Watch has already taken a post-resignation poll in Foley's district --on Sunday, Oct 1. (Click on the middle of the three glowing dots in Florida.) The result is:

Mahoney (D)--50%

Foley (R) -- 43%

True, Sunday was maybe a bit early for the anti-Foley voter reaction to have peaked. On the other hand, the GOPs have a whole month for Republican voters to drift back home, especially when they are told that a vote for "Foley" is in fact a vote for a new GOP candidate, Joe Negron. (And how could they not be paying attention to that question now?) ... Actually, Majority Watch did a second poll,--but this time told voters that "[v]otes for Foley will count as votes for a new Republican nominee to be determined next week"--and the result was

Mahoney (D)--49%

Foley (R)--46%

Seems like a margin that can be made up in a district that, per Majority Watch, is 47-32 Republican, no? ... 6:06 P.M. link

I'm just wondering how flaky the chattering classes think the electorate is? We've been talking about polarization for years now, but suddenly everyone seems to think that you can get people to stop voting for their party or actually switch their votes because a Congressman screwed up. Did Democrats stay home in 2000 because Bill Clinton turned out to be a dog?

If people are motivated enough to go to the polls, its generally because they have some pretty firm ideas about the direction of this country. Republicans in particular are less impressed with a pretty face than with positions that align with their own views

They also know how to use a butterfly ballot.

Terrorism, abortion, taxes--those are issues that move voters. Minor scandals like the Foley affair are something for the media to do for a couple of news cycles.