Every election, Democrats insist they are going to recapture the House and the Senate.

They promised it in 2000.

They promised it in 2002.

They promised it in 2004.

Forgive me if I remain dubious of the breathless media reports and assurances by Crat pols that this time--they really mean it.

its funny how polls get reported when they look good for Democrats, and then ignored when the news is less salutory.

The surprising findings in a little-noticed Gallup Poll that were ignored by most of the national news media shows the Democrats barely leading the Republicans by just two points -- 47 percent to 45 percent. After months of generic polling numbers by Gallup and others showing the GOP lagged far behind the Democrats by a seemingly insurmountable nine to 10 points, the titanic political battle for control of Congress is virtually dead even. This means we may not experience the feared Category 5 political storm some election analysts have forecast that would topple the GOP's House majority and cut deeply into its grip on the Senate. The venerable and respected Gallup organization, which did the poll for USA Today, said the GOP's unexpected rise in the polls "represents the Republicans' best performance in a single poll during the 2006 election cycle on this important measure of electoral strength." In an analysis accompanying its findings last week, Gallup said, "The Republican increase does appear to be significant."

The news is even worse for Democrats than this poll suggest, because Democrats routinely poll 5 points better than they actually perform according to a long-established pattern..

I keep hearing a lot of talk of the political environment doesn't favor Republicans--really? The Gallup polls results are perhaps attributable to the foiled terror attacks. The economy is great, and gas prices are headed down. What exactly is so bad about this political environment.

What is so fascinating in all of this hand-wringing by some conservatives and elation by some Democrats, is that its all driven by polls taken in August. I seem to remember that Kerry was also a shoo-in through the summer and that similarly, Bush pulled even and then ahead in early September. From the Guardian; June 11, 2004

In a two-way contest, Mr Kerry leads Mr Bush by 51% to 44%. In a three-way race that includes the independent, Ralph Nader, Mr Kerry leads 48% to 42%, with Mr Nader on 4%. Mr Kerry's prospects have been boosted by the fact that a growing proportion of Americans - about 60% - believe the country is on the wrong track. It is the highest figure recorded by an LA Times poll during the Bush presidency.

Well, we all know how that turned out...

Rick Santorum was supposed to be dead meat a couple of months ago--18 points down. He's now in single digit striking range with momentum iin his favor. A lot can change in a few weeks and no doubt, a lot will.

I'll continue to stick by my earlier assessments--Republicans keep it all, but give up a few seats.