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CIA Insurgents Making Another Coup Attempt

Ahmadinejad has Hezbollah and Hama, the Democrats have CIA insurgents.

Its campaign season and the leaks are coming fast and furious from the plotters in the CIA.

From the leaker-pimp, er-r-r the New York Times

The intelligence estimate, completed in April, is the first formal appraisal of global terrorism by United States intelligence agencies since the Iraq war began, and represents a consensus view of the 16 disparate spy services inside government. Titled “Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States,’’ it asserts that Islamic radicalism, rather than being in retreat, has metastasized and spread across the globe.

Radicalism is an ideology and its growth is really little surprise to me. The really contentious issue is of course attributing the growth of radicalism to the U.S. presence in Iraq (oddly enough, no mention of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, which I guess must be OK with the radicals...)

For more than two years, there has been tension between the Bush administration and American spy agencies over the violence in Iraq and the prospects for a stable democracy in the country. Some intelligence officials have said the White House has consistently presented a more optimistic picture of the situation in Iraq than justified by intelligence reports from the field.

Would those officials be Democrats? Valerie Plame's coworkers?

What should be clear from the 9/11 commission in that analysts have opinions, often incorrect opinions. Specifically I see no reason to lend credence to "intelligence analysts" who would leak their views to the pimp--how am I supposed to divorce the "informed opinion" from the politics?

The allegation that our presence in Iraq creates terrorists strikes me as unbelievably silly when we've seen riots over rumors--just rumors over flushed Korans, newspaper cartoons and papal remarks.

Muslims appear to be extraordinarily easy to radicalize, and Iraq doesn't seem to have a disportionately large impact on the collective martyrdom impulse of people with nothing better to do or to hope for.

It could be successfully argued that the biggest contribution to Islamic radicalism missonary effort is the internet. It stands to reason that if Iraq is making radicalism a bigger problem, then we should perhaps shut down the internet and cell phone networks too.

On the other hand, this could be a "good" leak in the sense that it produces a worthwhile discussion--if the growth of radical Islamist ideology is the problem, the clearly you fight ideology with ideology. That is in fact what Iraq is about--fighting radicalism and general thuggery with a better alternative--democracy.

A democracy or two or three in the region is going to be the most powerful counterargument to Islamic radicalism that can be had.

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Comments (5)

We’ve already had troops in Iraq long enough to know that the United States doesn’t have the ability to force Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds to make nice and live in peace with each other. It will take the kind of force previous rulers of Iraq have had to apply…and that is not a recipe for the kind of democratic example you claim we need as a “counterargument to Islamic radicalism”.

I hope the CIA personnel who are concerned about the unwise path the president is leading us down will continue to strike out any way they can within their bureaucracy to stop the waste of America’s best and brightest in Iraq. The president is staying the course even though the course leads to more American deaths without a net benefit to America.

It is time to set some deadlines for the Iraqi government and their new army and begin re-deploying our troops as the deadlines pass. We will have to find a face saving way to do it but we need to wind the Iraq battle down and move our troops to areas where they can take the fight to the real terrorist threats to America instead of the warring tribal/religious factions in Iraq.

Mick:

I attribute your first comment to simple ignorance, willful or not I can't say. The Iraqis have constructed a unity government and it has remarkably broad support from all constituencies in Iraq according to recent polls (which of course you didn't read...)

I attribute your second remark encouraging irresponsible and extra-democratic action by plotters in the CIA to immaturity and ignorance. No one elected CIA analysts to conduct the foreign policy of the country and if you don't like that, then make an argument for why your policy is best. To date the Democrats have studiously avoided doing so or have simply floated easily refuted nonsense about how if we would "just be nice" to the terrorists, they would leave us alone. The leak in question is meant to convey the ridiculous impression that Islamic radicals are only really upset about our presence in Iraq. It relies on the general ignorance of the left about even recent history. The left has simply made the same old discredited policy recommendations of the past--the same policies that led to 2 million deaths in Cambodia and inexorably led to 9/11.

The third statement is just plain naivete. The Iraqi government is undoubtedly aware of the forces pulling at the U.S. to withdraw and the necessity for the Iraqis to handle their own security. As it stands, Iraq is exactly where we need to be. I just strikes me as incredible that the left is so blythely unaware of the strategic importance of Iraq and Afghanistan relative to the true nexus of terror in the middleeast--Iran.

The bottom line is that the left has no interest in foreign policy or national security--their recommendations are designed to extricate us from any involvement whatsoever so Democrats can hopefully seize the emotional high ground again with socialized medicine and other ill-conceived but politically attractive ideas.

Y'all just aren't honest folks.

Name-calling aside...Iraq's “unity” government is far from the success you claim it is. If it were there wouldn't be a supposed reason for us to still be there. The truth is that Iraq's government and military would collapse without our troops there because it isn't built on a foundation that can succeed. Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds have different beliefs, interests and loyalties. They don't have any reason to cooperate other than the American troops located there. If we force them against their will to have a democracy does that really make Iraq a free country?

CIA analysts and employees are hired to do a specific job…not direct policy. I agree with you there. When they disagree with the policies they are asked to execute sometimes they complain…it happens no matter who is president. When a sitting executive is harming our country with faulty policy (as our current president is) anyone being asked to administer that policy would have the desire to complain about it even to the press. I don’t fault them for that but would understand if they were fired for it. I think we as American voters are better off if we are educated on all points of view regarding any policy. If the administration restricts the bad news resulting from its actions from being disclosed we are all better off if it gets out through other channels. Government is run by humans after all.

I don’t really consider myself a member of "the left" but understand if it makes you feel better when you apply the label to me. I’m sorry for insulting you in the past…resorting to that type of behavior is somewhat childish so I’ll plead guilty to your charge about my immaturity. I think the rest of your name-calling isn’t very constructive to a rational dialog on America’s foreign policy but this is your blog and I’m just a visitor so I won’t give you too hard a time about it. I like your writing and when you aren’t blatantly ripping off the current day’s episode of Rush Limbaugh or conducting ad hominem attacks on anyone to the left of Sean Hannity you often have interesting things posted here. If you’d like I’ll restrain my comments on your writings to my blog. (Without the insults of course…sorry again about that.)

Mick:

People reading your response would no doubt look askance at your claim that my comment constituted "name calling". Of course you may simply be engaging in a little mischaracterization of my remarks to hopefully enhance your own.

Once again, you reflect the left's rather puerile expectation for instant results in foreign policy when all mature students of history understand that such success is measured in generation. The unity government represents a forum for the Sunni to work out their differences with the Shia and Kurds. Consider for a moment the Provisional IRA and its relationship to the political arm of its movement--Sinn Fein. As Sinn Fein became more politically empowered, it gained the upper hand in the relationship because it was better able to deliver the political goods the movement sought. The PIRA was active for 30 years, but after Sinn Fein was recognized as a legitimate political party, the PIRA declined in importance and was eventually disbanded over a period of 10 years. The U.S. obviously recognized Sunni political entities immediately.

You are just wrong about the differences between the Shiites, Kurds and Sunni. As I stated quite specifically--the unity government is very popular and so is the idea of a unified country. The left is simply reflecting their ignorance by insisting that Iraqis want regional autonomy. You may want to read my post on this here: http://www.uncorrelated.com/2006/08/iraq_spin.html

You may want to read more deeply in your own country's early history--no one thought that would work either. Democracies are a lot messier than dictatorships, but ultimately they are the way to go if you want to eliminate war.

CIA analyst don't "execute" policy, they analyse intelligence. The leak to the NYT is nothing short of a coup attempt, and its clear by the timing that its been orchestrated by the Democrats for political impact. Sadly, what will probably happen is that the NIE will be declassified, which obviously isn't the best outcome in the interests of the war on terror. In the end, the Crats will be discredited for a temporary political advantage that will have little or no effect on the election. The reality concerning the leak is that it isn't about "concern" over a fault policy, because its abundantly clear from actual facts-on-the-ground that the policy is working. I'm making an assertion here, just like you are, but this blog is full of sustaining facts and arguments to that effect. in the end, I don't believe that Democrats think its a failed policy--the characterize as such simply in the hope of regaining power.

In any event, I welcome you to make your case. My email address is on the masthead. I will gladly discuss the issue in as much depth and as long as your like.

The accusation that the administration restricts bad news is risible. Everyday all I ever hear is bad news. I have to talk to actual Iraqis and U.S. military personel and various other media assets actually in country and "off the balcony" to find out what is actually going on there. The demand for military embedds is almost non-existent, and the media has taken to using Sunni stringers to provide them with news--one of which has been under arrest for several months because he was actually caught in an al Qaeda raid! There is a simple method for determining who is hiding what. Ask yourself what kind of news surprises you more from Iraq--good news or bad news? Were you surprised they got Zarqawi? Where you surprised that the Iraqis braved threats to their lives to vote in such numbers? Where you surprised that the unity government came together with representatives from all the major groups? Are you surprised there is no civil war in Iraq?

If we had balanced coverage of the war, we would see these things coming.

As for calling you left--I think if you read carefully you won't see that anywhere. Your positions reflect those of the left, and so I address them as leftist positions--significant difference.

By the way--I don't listen to talk radio (except when I am travelling).

You should probably know the complete results of polls such as the one you linked when using them to support your contention about Iraq’s rosy future.

When you read the entire results of the poll you cited a much bleaker picture of the situation in Iraq becomes apparent. The Kurds and Shiia are typically more positive in their responses to questions in the survey. Kurds have little reason to care about the “unity” government because they basically have autonomy anyway. Shiites are now the group in power and tend to be more optimistic about Iraq's prospects because of this. Sunnis and nearly all Arabs in northern Iraq are clearly angry and pessimistic about Iraq’s future (as is a substantial minority of respondents in the survey).

Northern Arabs and Sunnis indicated Iraq is generally headed in the wrong direction by majorities of 86% and 63% respectively.

Trends in polling by the same organization which conducted the poll you cited show that Iraqi public opinion on the direction Iraq is heading is far less positive than it was even a year ago.

The majority of Iraqis think things will be the same or worse 6 months from now (more than ever before in the polling conducted by this same organization). And more people than ever before think things will be worse a year and 5 years from now. Most Iraqis think that over the long term things will get better but the trends in polling show that more and more Iraqis are pessimistic.

77% of Iraqis think the electricity situation in Iraq has stayed the same or gotten worse over the past 3 months. 75% of Iraqis think the security situation in their country has stayed the same gotten worse over the past 3 months. 89% of Iraqis think the unemployment situation has stayed the same or gotten worse over the past 3 months. A majority of Iraqis think their country is more corrupt than it was 3 months ago with 76% saying there is the same amount or more corruption than there was previously. Each of these results is higher than in any of the other polls regularly conducted by IRI, the organization sponsoring these studies.

A majority of Iraqis may claim to approve of their government but the rest of their responses indicate increasing unhappiness with the way their country is developing. These numbers don’t support your contention that things in Iraq are better than we have been hearing in the news. I don’t expect instant results in Iraq but I am concerned that after 3 years of occupation in Iraq people are getting angrier and angrier not happier and happier. When does it get bad enough that people on the right will consider that we may not be succeeding in Iraq?

I don’t point out problems in Iraq with any sense of glee. If you read older entries on my blog you will see that from the beginning I supported an invasion of Iraq and President Bush’s method of conducting it. I just can’t maintain that support when there is so little evidence that we are making real progress and so much evidence that shows things are getting worse.

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