I've already written reams about the use of polls as propaganda. I'm not sure when it actually started but I first noticed it during the 2002 electoral cycle and have seen its use escalating ever since.

Initially, skewed polls could be construed as a kind of "honest" bias--inadvertant by nature, but increasingly there is an outright effort to make the polls say what you want them to.

A recent example is the See-BS poll indicating the president's popularity down to 34%. An analysis of the sample shows a clear skew in the sample, underrepresenting Republicans. See-BS's recent history serves to remove the benefit of the doubt--its a prop-poll and the liberal media are quoting it authoritively without a moment's pause.

The Zogby poll on the attitudes of American soldiers in Iraq is a new benchmark in propaganda

An overwhelming majority of 72% of American troops serving in Iraq think the U.S. should exit the country within the next year, and nearly one in four say the troops should leave immediately, a new Le Moyne College/Zogby International survey shows..

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, but the Zogby poll isn't very forthcoming. Much of the methodology is secret but 20 bucks will get you a peek at the questions.

According to the Mystery Pollster who interviewed John Zogby about the poll, it was commissioned by the Center for Peace and Global Studies, a left-wing campus organization at LeMoyne College in Syracuse, NY.

There are two interesting points to consider here--where does an obscure group at an obscure college get the kind of money required to fund such an admittedly ambitious poll? Secondly, what kind of value does the group get for funding such a poll? Are we to believe that a left-wing peacenik group paid Zogby International big bucks for whatever result came out of the bottom of the hopper?

The standard practice for public polls is to publicly reveal the methodology. Zogby explains his refusal to disclose key elements of his procedures because of "concern for the safety of the troops being polled?" Really? Concerned about guys wth body armor and automatic weapons? Who are these people in danger from? Is Zogby seriously suggesting that although he had permission from the Pentagon to conduct the poll, that soldiers were in danger of reprisals from their superiors? The claim undermines all pretense at objectivity.

It occured to me right away that a large part of the problem with conducting a poll in Iraq is getting a truly representative sample.

So to evaluate this survey, one important question is whether the troop populations accessible at the locations Zogby selected are representative of all troops in Iraq. This issue is analogous to the question of whether precincts selected for an exit poll are representative of all precincts in a given state (although exit poll precinct selection is usually random). Zogby believes the locations involved provide a reasonably representative sampling and, as noted above, he offered to share the names of specific locations on an off-the-record basis. I declined largely because I lack the knowledge and resources to make an independent assessment. So for me, this question remains open.

The opaque quality of the survey would be a big problem without any other considerations, but its conclusions contradict a massive body of contrary evidence, including the direct observations of over 1200 milbloggers.

Zogby’s response to the question as to “what advice he would offer data consumers who find this all puzzling. In this case, he said, ‘you have to trust me.”

As Hugh Hewitt points out--Zogby's credibility isn't particularly strong in the wake of his performance during the 2000, 2002 and 2004 elections, which Larry political scientist Larry Sabato described charitably as "highly inaccurate". Which reminds me--what methodology Zogby deigns to reveal publicly looks suspiciously similar to 2004 election day exit polling in Florida.

Ironically, the American public appears to be immune to these manipulations. Most people outgrow peer pressure some time during highschool or soon thereafter. "Likely Voters" don't seem that fickle to me.. What is less clear is what effect a poll like this will have on Iraqis, on the Middleeast generally and on the terrorists specifically. Bin Laden's tapes betray a naivete about the relationship between American public opinion and elite media coverage, and if as expected, he and other al Qaeda maniacs take the survey at face value, life in the caves just got a little less gloomy.

I don't think happy terrorists are a good thing and there is the very real prospect of more lives lost because of this. I don't need this post to be any longer than it is, but the issue raises the question of whether the free speech rights of a bunch of kooks at Lemoyne College trump the right to life of Americans and Iraqis? More so since the speech is a lie.

Zogby is a gun for hire, but its the MSM that is going to go with the story as tomorrow's lead. They will of course ignore the obvious problems in favor of a little sensationalism, the self-delusion of speaking "truth to power and a chance to stick it to Bush just one more time.