Stephen Green wrote an interesting analysis of Russia's current state.
- Thinking about Russia today, my mind made the unfortunate leap to Rocky Balboa. I don't mean the underrated prizefighter who went 15 rounds with Apollo Creed 30 years ago; I mean "Rocky Balboa," the movie – otherwise known as "Rocky VI," and due out next year.
Over the hill, past his prime, and way past anybody caring about what he does, Sylvester Stallone is donning the shorts for one last go-around as Russia. Er – as Rocky.
Russia, too, is over the hill. Need proof? Russia is the first modernized nation (don't laugh – it's true!) with a falling life expectancy. And past its prime? You betcha. Today there are about 143 million Russian citizens, down five million in ten years. Maybe 115 million are actually Russian, with the remainder divided amongst Ukrainians, Tatars, Muslims, and the various indigenous peoples of Siberia. Fifty years from now, demographers expect that in the best-case scenario, Russia's population will have fallen to around 100 million. Of those, probably not many more than 65 million will be ethnic-Russians. You can bet, however, that Russia's Muslim peoples will increase in numbers, while the Slavs fall.
He goes on to catalogue Putin's recent trouble-making and it occured to me that Russia is following the pattern of another former super-power--France.
Like France, Russia finds it politically impossible to address the fundamental issues undermining the progress of the country, so like Chirac and his predecessors, Putin focuses on those things he can do to create an image of relevancy in world affairs. Ultimately its death-spiral politics, but options are limited.
I wouldn't put a pox on his house just yet though. Green mentions what Putin is doing with something short of enthusiasm--muzzling the press, nationalizing everything in sight. Yet asserting control is just what Russia needs to turn it around. Ask yourself the question of who is more free--the Russian or the Chinese? The Russians have a facade of democracy, but the Chinese have arguably more freedom under an oligarchy. The same pattern is true in many places in the world and given a choice, I would opt for a well-functioning dictatorship than a dysfunctional democracy anytime.
Jefferson and Madison fought Alexander Hamilton tooth and nail as the latter, suspiciously in their view, implemented "royalist" institutions like excise taxes, a national bank, a standing army and a border patrol (coast guard). After Jefferson became president, he realized that this wasn't all bad afterall and Hamilton's innovations became the backbone of this country's prosperity and thereby freedom.
Russia arguably has "too much freedom" at the moment, otherwise know as chaos. What they need, and what Putin can hopefully deliver, is a larger measure of control.
















Comments (1)
Interesting. I'd not considered the parallel between France and Russia politically. Good call.
Posted by Greg | January 3, 2006 9:10 PM
Posted on January 3, 2006 21:10