Martin fiddles while the Liberals burn

The last national poll of 2000 Canadians by Ipsos has Stephen Harper's Conservatives with a 12 point lead over the Liberals. It seems likely that Harper will accomplish what seemed impossible just a few weeks ago--a majority Conservative government.

Most surprising is the Conservative appeal in Quebec, without a doubt the most liberal province in Canada. They are polling twice (27 to 14%) what the Liberals are.

Its a huge problem for the Conservatives.

Yes, the Conservatives. People are clearly voting against the Liberals and not specifically for the Conservatives which makes Stephen Harper's job very difficult indeed.

Harper will have a majority government, but a minority base in the country, mostly west of Manitoba. The Federal bureaucracy is solidly Liberal after more than a decade in power and in Canada, governments come and go, but the bureaucracy is eternal. As in the British parliamentary tradition, ministers resign when things go wrong in their portfolios, and I think we can expect a lot of things to go wrong--on purpose. The media, particularly the extreme left-wing CBC, is going to be on this government like white on rice--in other words, Stephen Harper is going to have a lot in common with George W. Bush, but without a 9/11 to change people's outlook.

I hate to be a pessimist here even before the ballots are cast, but we may simply be looking at a five year interregnum between Liberal governments. The Liberals will now have the pressure off, can find a new leader to present a fresh face and simply bide their time. Harper and the Conservatives on the other hand will have to change an entire national culture in five years.

I suppose its possible, but not very likely.

One thing that could help is Bush administration conciliation on the soft wood lumber issue. The soft-wood-what? Yeah, that's the U.S.-Canada relationship in a nutshell--we are oblivious about something that is probably the number one irritant to Canadians in their relationship with the U.S. When we talk about Canadian anti-Americanism, its hard to overestimate the contribution that soft wood lumber issue makes. Canada has sent the conflict to arbitration more than once and received favorable rulings each time--yes, the U.S. is in violation of the NAFTA. Yet powerful regional interests in U.S. lumber states have managed to get Congress to say "so what?"

If Harper can break up this log jam, it will go a long way to establishing Conservative credibility. On the other hand, if we stand pat, whoever the president is in five years will be getting single-digit salutes on the state visit to Canada and a chilly reception from yet another Liberal PM.

H/T Captain's Quarters.